This is my commentary on other people's stuff -- particularly blogs of people I know. Every post title should be a link to the blog I'm commenting about.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Follow the link for references to the tyrant king porn dragon

So, anyone near Indiana, is this a real person? Is this getting a lot of Indiana press, or is he an ultrafringe loon who is mostly ignored?

I'm not kidding about the tyrant king porn dragon. Apparently it's pulling Jews into sex slavery, according to Zirkle. (See, now you HAVE to follow the link, don't you?)
clipped from thinkprogress.org

Tony Zirkle, a GOP congressional candidate in Indiana, recently came under heavy criticism for speaking to the American National Socialist Workers Party (ANSWP) on the 119th anniversary of Adolf Hitler’s birth. At the event, Zirkle “stood in front of a painting of Hitler, next to people wearing swastika armbands and with a swastika flag in the background.” On his website, Zirkle has responded to the criticisms by railing against Jews and prostitution:

 blog it

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

At least 3 people care about prisons

This is for Sarah, who is one of the above 3. Some interesting posts in the comments (if you ignore mine), but no direct discussion of _why_ prison reform is a political third rail.

I suppose indirectly there's some evidence however: many people say our massive imprisonment gets results, and the fact that the rest of the world isn't as unique as us explains why we need to imprison 1 out of every hundred adults. So what's to reform?

Yikes: "The United States has less than 5 percent of the world’s population. But it has almost a quarter of the world’s prisoners." Needless to say, we lead the world in imprisonment. This seems like a serious problem, especially when you consider Tyler Cowen's point that our prisoners face unusually dire circumstances by developed world standards.

 blog it

Bike lanes

True other places too. I'm not a big biker, but I'd be far more tempted if it didn't involve chicken contests with cars.
For example, the city fathers of Washington, DC should consider that though it's nice that they've established some bike lanes, the key thing would be for the lanes to connect with one another and go into the downtown area so they'd be helpful for people trying to get from where they live to where the bulk of the stuff is.
It's like how the roads for cars don't just stop arbitrarily.
 blog it

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Why Matt Yglesias is my blogdude

This is the kind of sarcasm I look for in my daily reading. Sadly, I wish he had fewer soft targets to aim his righteous biting wit at...

Michael O'Hanlon gets a Washington Post op-ed to lay out his surprising view that the surge is awesome and, indeed, is working so well that we can expect to start taking troops out of Iraq in early 2010 if everything continues to be so awesome.

In essence, thanks to the super-duper success of the surge, all we need now is several years of additional war and for all of Iraq's problems to solve themselves. Mission accomplished!
 blog it

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Bob's Innumeracy watch

Apologies to Ms. Beard for posting the whole article, but hey, if your math wasn't deceptive I wouldn't be forced to do this.

The percentages cited for other cities use a middle-cost scenario, while the Phoenix range of costs for owning is the low-cost and high-cost scenarios. So even if you knew better, you'd need to read the article to find the apples-to-apples comparison, which is this: the cost of ownership in Phoenix exceeds the cost of renting by 78%.

That's what those percentages mean, by the way: the article drops some critical words -- it should be "...when ownership costs exceed rental costs by 50 percent or more, it indicates a bubble."

Oh, and that "47 to 64 percent"? That's dividing the cost of renting by the (low and high scenario) cost of owning, which isn't directly comparable to any of the other results. Also, since that result isn't particularly meaningful, it's NOT in the original report, as opposed to all the other numbers in the article.
clipped from www.azcentral.com


Betty Beard
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 6, 2008 09:05 PM


The recent rise in Phoenix's housing prices means that in some cases the cost of owning a house grew too high compared with the cost of renting one, says a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington, D.C.


Based on 2006 housing costs, the cost of renting in the Phoenix area averages $862 while the average cost of owning can range from $1,343 to $1,804, depending on interest rates, the report said. That means that Phoenix rental costs can range from 47 to 64 percent of ownership costs.

The report says that when ownership costs exceed 50 percent, it indicates a bubble. Some "extraordinary" gaps include New York City, where it costs 109 percent more to own a home than to rent; San Diego, 133 percent; San Francisco, 161 percent; and Los Angeles, 168 percent.
 blog it

Friday, February 22, 2008

more mortgage deduction

(shoulda been clipped in previous)
clipped from www.theatlantic.com
What it does promote, studies show, is spending on housing—that is, people who would have been owners anyway pay more for their houses. Prices are higher than they would otherwise have been, and mortgages are bigger. As many owners have learned abruptly, this can worsen economic insecurity.
 blog it

Mortgage deduction silliness

Via Matt Yglesias
clipped from www.theatlantic.com

The mortgage-interest deduction is the backbone of American housing policy. It exists, ostensibly, to encourage widespread homeownership. In its favor, it doesn’t actually do that. But it does have consequences: It’s been one of the quieter causes of the housing bubble. The mortgage-interest deduction deserves special recognition for the stupidity with which it subsidizes something that should not be subsidized in the first place. I challenge you to design a subsidy for homeownership that is as wasteful, as unfair, and as harmful to the economy in the long run.

 blog it

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Inequality/tax progressiveness

This harkens back to the schem of tax progressiveness I was talking about over on thecitizens oh so long ago.

Fair Taxes? Depends What You Mean by ‘Fair', by Greg Mankiw, Economic View, NY
Times
:

The C.B.O.’s most recent calculations of federal tax rates show a highly
progressive system. ... The poorest fifth of the population, with average annual
income of $15,400, pays only 4.5 percent of its income in federal taxes. The
middle fifth, with income of $56,200, pays 13.9 percent. And the top fifth, with
income of $207,200, pays 25.1 percent.

The best source for objective data on the distribution of the tax burden is
the Congressional Budget Office. The C.B.O. goes beyond anecdotes and bald
assertions to provide hard data on who pays taxes. ...

At the very top of the income distribution, the C.B.O. reports even higher
tax rates. The richest 1 percent has average income of $1,259,700 and forks over
31.1 percent of its income to the federal government.

The fancy economics term for this is distributional equity.

Here's an editorial I

wrote
awhile back on the same topic:

 blog it

another econ graph

Title kinda contains the point.

Social Spending and GDP per Capita

Socialspending_2
 blog it

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Follow up to previous

mmm...linear fit...
 blog it

WSJ, how could you?

Embarrassing as this is, I think it might be cute to show my College Algebra students as an example of how not to fit a graph to data.
clipped from online.wsj.com
[We're Number One, Alas]
 blog it

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

So, ScribeFire seems to be putting truckloads of whitespace in my blogger posts. Purportedly this is because ScribeFire's not handling the new Google-owned blogger that well. This seems like a big part of the userbase.

At least the "& nbsp;" stuff didn't show up explicitly this time (I'm posting from ScribeFire for Firefox for Windows, and I posted as a draft first; when I posted from ScribeFire for Firefox for Linux, posting direct, I got explicit nbsp's all over the place. (I like two spaces after my periods, which apparently inserts an nbsp.)
Atrios makes a fine observation here:

After 9/11, the justifiability of our actions quickly got confused with the wisdom of them.


No doubt a wartime mentality enhances this whole notion, but regardless, this is one of those notions that people are on one side or the other of, and don't even know they are (or that someone could possibly be on the other side).

I got into a small fracas over at The Citizens with RbR over the Danish newspaper Mohammed cartoons thing, and this is what it boiled down to: he thought that because I thought the publishers were contentious, baiting, and mean, that I wanted to dismantle freedom of speech and the press. He was thinking that because they were _allowed_ to do something, questioning the _wisdom_ of it was tantamount to squelching their right.

I'm happy to defend to the death your right to say whatever idiotic thing you want. I also feel justified in telling you how idiotic it is, as well as how idiotic you're being for saying it.

Technorati Tags: ,

Powered by ScribeFire.

Friday, February 02, 2007

Guided Tour of Diigo

I reckon this blog has a readership of 1, at least right now, so I don't mind using it as a guinea pig:

Guided Tour of Diigo

You should check it out. I'm using the "BlogThis" extension to Firefox, but Diigo is pretty neato too.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Hey, I don't suppose there's a super-easy way to cross-post to several blogs in blogger? (This betrays my deep ignorance, I know.)

I'm now thinking that I'd like to have one central blog, which I actually _would_ post to regularly, and depending on what category the thought of the day fell in, I'd like it to get posted to dedicated blogs (Gnomicon, Trollkien, Curmudgeon Gamer, etc.) also. That way _I_ only post one place, which comprises my whole "online presence", and blogs that cover a particular topic suck up the appropriate pieces for their own use.

I don't really expect anyone to see this in the near future, since this blog has been so moribund, but if I do some searching and answer my own question, I'll put the answer here.

Wednesday, December 01, 2004

Atoms make mountains...here's an atom:

It's currently popular to pretend that capitalism is the only measure of value, but the role of
government (particularly in its grant of copyright monopolies) requires considering social goods that
might not translate directly into dollars or market share.

I hope I'll put another screed o' the day up tomorrow.

Monday, November 15, 2004

Hey, this is me just trying to see if I can get some RSS thingamajig to work.

Here's an XML thing for my Thinkgeek Christmas list, which probably won't do anything useful, but could conceivably be aggregated or something like that.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Like a zombie rising from the dead, halfwit lumbers into view, long after everyone had forgotten about him.

I have some big ideas -- in particular, ideas about having a way-cool website. I've got a theme idea and everything.

But, big ideas tend to translate into nothing much happening. Which is why the following bit from Linus Torvalds resonated with me:
Preston: Do you have any advice for people starting to undertake large open source projects? What have you learned by managing the Linux kernel?

Linus Torvalds: Nobody should start to undertake a large project. You start with a small _trivial_ project, and you should never expect it to get large. If you do, you'll just overdesign and generally think it is more important than it likely is at that stage. Or worse, you might be scared away by the sheer size of the work you envision.

So start small, and think about the details. Don't think about some big picture and fancy design. If it doesn't solve some fairly immediate need, it's almost certainly over-designed. And don't expect people to jump in and help you. That's not how these things work. You need to get something half-way _useful_ first, and then others will say "hey, that _almost_ works for me", and they'll get involved in the project.

And if there is anything I've learnt from Linux, it's that projects have a life of their own, and you should _not_ try to enforce your "vision" too strongly on them. Most often you're wrong anyway, and if you're not flexible and willing to take input from others (and willing to change direction when it turned out your vision was flawed), you'll never get anything good done.

In other words, be willing to admit your mistakes, and don't expect to get anywhere big in any kind of short timeframe. I've been doing Linux for thirteen years, and I expect to do it for quite some time still. If I had _expected_ to do something that big, I'd never have started. It started out small and insignificant, and that's how I thought about it.

(from linuxtimes)

So, for the time being, I'm going to use halfwit to put up truly notable things that catch my eye, so there'll be somewhere I have them. And maybe something will emerge. While I'm working on moving things to the cool website, you understand. After I make the cool website. Which maybe should just start out as a website...

Anyhow, another piece I thought was interesting (and to add a little topicality, keep in mind its election day 2004) was from Lawrence Lessig: (note the link probably won't be helpful after a few days).

election duties

It is astonishing to me how hard it is to talk to friends and family about this election. It must have been easier before we entered the age of the broadcast. People must have expected it. But today, politics is religion — and neither are to be discussed among people who disagree. We feel free to stuff envelopes at an election headquarters. Or even to blather on in a blog. But the act of directly confronting someone else — at least if you know them — and asking them to explain their vote is as rude as asking them to explain their heart.

Most of the time, that doesn’t bother me. But in elections like this, it depresses the hell out of me. My family has had a vicious, extended debate through our mailing list about this election. I never understood how families were torn apart by the Civil War. I understand it now. Yet despite the bloodiness, it feels to me a duty. I swayed just one vote in that exchange with my family; I never expected to sway any. But the expectation of failure is not a reason to concede — see, e.g., the free culture movement.

I think this a duty we all share. We should learn to do it civilly. We need better tools. But if we’re ever to become a democracy that is immune from the spins of the likes of bin Laden and Rove, we need to rediscover, or just discover, the ethic of reasoned persuasion.

We built p2p-politics to ease people into this practice. Despite its brilliant technical implementation, the idea was a bust. Billions came to the site to watch the clips; scores of great clips were submitted; but precious few used the tool to send to someone else an argument, or a reason, or even a clip.

Whatever your tool, make this a duty of citizenship. Not always, maybe not in every election. But at least in this election. I spend a huge part of my time (insanely, my friends say) engaging with people I don’t know who email all sorts of questions and abuse (and even some words of praise). So this might seem more natural to me. But citizenship must mean explaining why. At least this time, it must. We are divided, and furious. We should use that anger for some good.


This is a tricky idea, that I want to think more about. I think expressing a point of view and still having humility is the key, but I'm not sure how that works.

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

This is the first post which indicates I should really synthesize my blogs into a newer, better, superblog. I have great hopes of doing this, but it's going to take a little while. Hopefully, the result will not just be a unified blog, and not just a blog that gets posted to a skillion times more often, but a kick-ass website with everyone will flock to see. For now, though, this is just a post that could go equally well on my trollkien blog or here. It's about a blog (namely, the D&D blog), which is why I posted here, but it's primarily about playing D&D on that blog, which makes it fair game for trollkien.

But enough about me, and more about my ranting.

I actually hope it isn't ranting, because I've spent a little time thinking about the situation, and I think I can, if not spread the blame equally, at least offer constructive comments with more perspective than I could've a few days ago.

First, let me describe the situation, and why I think it's a problem.

The D&D blog is a D&D game, run in a blog (hence the name.) The DM is Scott, and the player/characters are me (Bob/Barik), Jacob/Linnam, Aaron/Drusilla, John/Grell, and Fabio/Alonzo. (I'm going to try to refer to character actions with character's names and player actions/comments with player's names, so keep this key for handy reference.) Lately, after an encounter with some orcs, Grell, Alonzo, and Barik got killed. Read the archive if you seek any more details that I don't mention here.

In isolation, this is already potentially a problem. More than half the PCs dying could end a campaign. Scott is conveniently working things so that two of us are going to get raised from the dead, and it sounds like Fabio (the odd one out) is going to create a new character, so there are processes in place to try to keep this campaign alive.

But I don't know if it's enough.

In my opinion, this particular episode is just the latest symptom of a destructive dynamic in the campaign. And I suspect that if it continues, it will suck the fun out of the game. Then the campaign will end not because player characters die, but because player interest dies.

I'd like to be evenhanded about this, but because he's in charge of the campaign, a lot of my comments are going to be directed at Scott. I hope he doesn't take it personally. Of course, I really hope he thinks everything I say is right. :)

In retrospect, the in-combat and out-of-combat parts of the game have been completely disconnected, and needed to be handled differently, and I haven't been changing gears fast enough. (In fact, I don't think any of the players have, although Aaron has done the best job so far.) The party is diverse and the characters are all supposed to be from different places, and the players have adopted the traditional roles of not liking each other and bickering, which Scott has certainly encouraged. And in the out-of-combat "soap opera" part of the game, that's fine. Everyone has been carefully in character, whether that character is silly, self-destructive, unenlightened, or whatever. And the NPCs have taken sides or been helpful or frustrating, continuing the drama. Which is fine, although sometimes these scenarios have gone on too long, no doubt partly because of players talking too much (that would be me), and partly because of NPC scenes.

But in-combat, Scott's tried to make the fights challenging. From completely unreasonable to merely tough, the DM's been assuming that the party will throw away any character considerations and fight as efficiently as possible. And I, for one, have not changed from character to munchkin every combat. This is where Aaron has been able to roll with the changes so well -- for a shrew, Drusilla shuts up and does whatever she can in battle. The only combat "mistake" that I can recall was when she lost her patience and made herself invisible to try to sneak attack the hobgoblin, a job that obviously should have gone to someone else.

This last combat, with the multiple casualties, was a combination of bad luck (which there has been rather a lot of) and some poor tactics, which one can easily attribute to appropriate character portrayal. Grell charged in and got in a lot of trouble in a hurry -- and, as an impulsive half-orc, this is what you would expect. Linnam hung back and fired arrows from safety, not willing to risk anything -- and, as an overcautious spy with no experience in battle, this is what you would expect. Alonzo held back, firing first, and gave a little speech about "archery being the pivot of battle". A reasonable approach, with a flowery description of tactics -- and again, what you would expect. My own character precipitated the battle, seeing a mass of orcs (his sworn enemy) running down a pair of mysterious survivors of a recent battle and trying to defend them. Yep, pretty much what you would expect.

Indeed, the only character that did anything one might _not_ expect is the NPC, Bishop -- although he supposedly has considerable combat experience. He followed Linnam's lead and hung back, and only when Linnam started riding down the mountain did he helpfully point out that "they've waited too long." Thanks, jackass. Try acting like a fighter and not a nincompoop.

One could argue with the last point, about the NPC inaction. "What, you want the NPCs to lead you through everything? It's supposed to be a participatory game, pal." True, and Kray contributed plenty of independent action in combat. I would say that Bishop's portrayal in this particular situation was an exception which made a bad situation even worse, and that friendly NPCs have behaved pretty well in combat.

The point of all this is: combat can be fun, and out-of-combat drama can be fun, but if we have to drop the characterization whenever we're in combat, that's not as fun. And combat is currently set up to be very high-challenge. I don't know much about the challenge rating system or how good it is, but the combats have been skewed against the party in apparently small but significant ways. Here's some examples.

There's no point in discussing the ambush. Not only was it meant to be profoundly skewed, the players were given no opportunity to change the circumstances or effects of the combat. Let's try to leave it behind us and move on.

In the hobgoblin fight, our side was hampered because our friendly NPCs, instead of doing what our other friendly NPC commanded them, tried to charge in and blocked the way through a gate with their horses. (They were summarily killed off, also a common theme with friendly NPC's.)

In the carrion crawler fight, Barik was attacked 8 times after a move action by a crawler. Creatures and characters alike can't take a move action and attack more than once in a round, as it says in the main D&D FAQ, available here. Scott's welcome to adjust rules here and there, but I can't be expected to make smart combat decisions if the rules I have available aren't the rules he's using.

We don't have a cleric. Grell used to be a cleric, but he's defrocked since he killed his twin in cold blood, a surprise move that Scott has included in the storyline brilliantly, but we haven't been given an NPC cleric despite our efforts. Not having such a strong renewable source of healing, as well as a second-tier defensive fighter, makes the party weaker than a generic challenge rating would presume. (Yes, Grell's magic sword has let him wade through grunts; no, this doesn't make up for not having fresh healing. Consider the effort spent by Drusilla administering healing potions during the hobgoblin battle, when she could have been casting spells.)

The fumble rule hurts PCs, hurts characterization, and simply sucks. My personal beef with fumbling is that Barik, who has a 14 Dex, which is supposed to be considerably above average, is apparently dropping things all the time. This really hurts the attempt to portray him as competent, let alone actually skilled, at combat.

But in addition, the effect of fumbling and criticals are both essentially the same -- they increase the variance of the combat outcome. Since each individual combat is skewed in favor of the players, increased variance means the chance that the combat doesn't go well -- dead PCs, forced retreat, etc. -- is increased. An orc fumbling his weapon is rarely important -- he was probably going to die anyway. A PC fumbling his weapon is: he (or she) probably _wasn't_ going to die, but now he might.

The same reasoning applies to criticals, but these have become a part of the game standard, despite Gary Gygax's strenuous arguments against them. And fumbles are more extreme than criticals. A critical is, in effect, a follow-on hit: you roll a 20, and not only do you hit, but you get to try to hit again. A fumble, then, one would expect to work like a negative hit: you roll a 1, and not only do you miss, but you might be forced to miss again. So a fumble is implemented as "you drop your weapon, and have to spend next round picking it up."

Of course, if you can attack more than once with a weapon, which is more likely for a PC fumbling than a monster, this actually costs you two or three attacks. It also makes options like running away more costly (since you'll leave your weapon behind.) If the DM decides that you have to move to pick up your weapon, or otherwise make the fumble any worse than a standard action, then the fumble costs you that much more.

Incidentally, "the chance to hit again" is easier to capitalize on than "the chance to avoid another miss". Conservatively, the attack bonus for a PC will be 3-4 steps higher than the armor bonus they're hitting, while the Dex check to avoid fumbling is more likely to be 1-2. Does it really make more sense for rogues to never drop their weapons, but for fighters to do so regularly? And why does nothing else get fumbled, like a horn being blown on the run?

These are all relatively little details, but they add up: fumbles make combat harder, probably more than one might think; not having a cleric hurts, even with potions, even before one thinks about opportunity costs of buying potions; challenge ratings don't take into account circumstances of the encounter, which are generally under the DM's control.

All together, the combat experience doesn't permit anything but good strategic play. Which is not necessarily bad, but it would have been nice to figure out ahead of time that characterization is only for out-of-combat. In combat, the party can't afford to make ambiguous statements like "Alonzo, you're a powerful front-line fighter who can toss orcs around like hay. Why do you remain here, trying to shoot from a distance?" and for Alonzo to reply "...archery is victory's pivot."

Through no fault of his own, Fabio didn't realize how far away the combat was occurring, and that, because of Grell's charge, it wasn't going to get any closer soon. He may well have missed out on how much damage Grell was taking, which, after all, Alonzo wouldn't have known. No, for this combat to have worked out well, Jacob's comment (or mine, which came later) should have been: "Fabio, we're x distance from the fight, and the leader is whaling on Grell instead of advancing toward us. If you want to use your spiky attack, you'll need y turns to get in range. Also, your arrows are -z to hit from here. Make Alonzo take the heat off Grell." Fabio would have replied, "Alonzo says that archery is victory's pivot...and with phase one complete, I charge down the mountainside, an urgrosh in hand and a song in my heart."

Oh, and he'd have to have succeeded in that DC 20 ride check, which if you think about it is probably overinflated relative to other Ride Checks. More on why "realism" is a bad idea later.

Friday, February 13, 2004

This is an attempt to move the halfwit blog over to Bristol.